ESSAY ON WATER & ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

1. INTRODUCTION:

“Water is precious, use it wisely” says a notice placed in the bathroom of a five star hotel in Karachi. There could not be a sounder piece of advice but it should be given not only to the guests of the five star hotels but also to the entire citizenry of Pakistan. Pakistan is rapidly moving to the situation when it will begin to be ranked among the countries that have severe shortages of fresh water. Wise use of this precious resource is one way of dealing with this crisis.

Man is a pre-eminently an animal good at gadgets. Man uses water much in the same way as other animals; he has to drink it constantly, washes in it frequently, and drowns in it occasionally – probably oftener than other terrestrial vertebrates. Without water, he dies as miserably as any other beast and with too much of it, as in floods, he is equally unable to cope. However, he excels other animals in that he has learned to utilize waterpower.
There are three basic uses of water in the modern civilization– agriculture, industry and human consumption. Using water wisely in these three uses is one way of saving the country from economic and social disaster.

Water is one of the most important natural resource and the major driving force for the economy of Pakistan. Only a few decades ago, Pakistan was considered to have abundance of good quality water. Now, however, in many other area of the world, population growth, economic development, rapid urbanization and industrialization, are applying continuous pressure on the already limited water resources of Pakistan.

Pakistan is now towards a serious shortage of water. In 1951, per capita surface water availability for irrigation was estimated at 5650 cubic metres; this declined sharply to only 1350 cubic metres per head in 2002. The minimum amount that should be available is 1000 cubic metres. 2012, Pakistan will have reached the stage of “acute water shortage”.

2. CURRENT SITUATION IN PAKISTAN:
3. WORLD BANK REPORT:• Pakistan has exhausted its current water capability and needs to take immediate measure to sustain its water-driven economy.
• Pakistan only stores 30 days of river water. India stores 120 to 220 days, Colorado River in the US stores 900 days.
• Pakistan’s per capita water storage is just 150 cubic meters while that of China is 2200, Australia 5000 and the US is 5000.
Pakistan’s economy can only be propelled into future only through building new water projects and canals.
4. WATER VISION 2016:

President Musharraf said, 

“Water and energy are matters of life and death for us. We have to build all dams. We have lagged far behind and have to work at a fast pace to catch up with the rest of the world.”
We are facing an existing water shortage by 9 million-acre feet and by 2020 this short fall will be up to 20 maf. Constructing two to three dams is inevitable for us by the year 2020. By building mega water reservoirs our canals will become perennial and no longer be seasonal. New reservoirs will generate 10000 mw of power, which would certainly bring down the rate of electricity. One dam will bring an additional 2 maf of water to Sindh, two dams will fetch 4 maf and another dam will bring water equal to storage capacity of Mangla Dam.

Apart from Diamer-Bhasha and Kalabagh, the water vision envisages construction of Akori, Munda and Kuram Tungi Dams by the year 2016.

5. NEED FOR THE DAMS:

Tariq Hameed, Chairman Wapda says,

“Pakistan is fortunate that nature has bestowed it with abundant water reservoirs. It is now up to us to harness these resources for the economic development and prosperity of the people of Pakistan.” 

1) Presently, out of total cultivable land of 77.1 million acres, we are only cultivating 54.5 million acres because of shortage of water.
2) With the increase in population, Pakistan will have a shortfall of 11 million tons of major food grains by 2010 and 16 million tons by 2020. This food grain deficit will increase to 28 million tons by 2025.
3) High power tariff burdening consumers can be reduced by correcting hydel-thermal generation ratio of 30-70, which used to be the opposite in 1970.
4) Only 14 % of Pakistan’s total hydropower potential of 50,000 mw being tapped at present.
5) Average hydel generation unit cost for new projects is Rs. 1.00/KWH against Rs. 7.00/KWH for new oil based thermal generation.
6) Pakistan’s electricity demand and increasing by 7 % per annum.
7) Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy; 23.3 % of GDP.
8) 64 % Pakistanis depend on agriculture.
9) 60-70 % of exports depend on it.

10) Pakistan today is among one of the world’s fastest growing populations now estimated at over 150 million. Due to the lack of large river regulation capability through sizable storages, the country is facing serious shortages in food grains. Given the present trend, Pakistan could soon become one of the food deficit countries in the near future. Therefore, there is a dire need to build storages for augmenting agriculture production. Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma reservoirs have already lost about 5 maf due to sedimentation. It is estimated that by the year 2012, this loss would increase to the original combined capacity of Mangla and Chashma reservoirs. 

11) Industrial expansion and growth essential for economic development and prosperity.
12) It will provide the better clean environment for the human beings.
13) Reduction in barren lands.
14) To control flooding and manage rivers.
15) The completion by India of Wuller, Buglihar and Krishenganga, Uri-11 Pakaldul and Burser projects on the western rivers of Indus, Jehlum and Chenab to which Pakistan has the exclusive right according to the 1960 Indus Basin Water Treaty, will also create serious water shortage.
6. NEED FOR RESERVOIRS:
1) Hydropower Generation

High power tariff, which is a burden on consumer, can be reduced by correcting hydel thermal generation ratio of 30-70, which used to be the opposite in 1970. Only 40% of Pakistan’s total hydro power potential of 50000MW is being tapped at present. Average hydel generation cost for new projects is Rs 1.007/Kwh as against Rs 7/Kwh for new oil base thermal generation. Pakistan’s electricity demands are increasing by 7% per annum.

Saving import of fuel for thermal power plants reduce cost of electrically i.e. Rs1/Kwh. Electrification of industries of towns and villages. Reduces cost of electricity help manufacturers.

2) Agriculture
Agriculture forms the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. 23.3% of GDP, 64% Pakistanis depend directly on agriculture. 60-70% exports depend on it. Water is a life line for agriculture. Average rainfall of Pakistan is below Avg. Thus, water storage is needed for agriculture as it is a precious resource and we should not waste a drop of it.

Out of Pakistan total geographical area only 17.1Macre is suitable for agriculture. A total of 44.4Macres of agriculture land is irrigated besides only 10Macres Barani land under cultivation. If water is available the remaining 22.6Macres of land(29% of total suitable area for agriculture) can turn productive if no additional water is tapped. It means that 1/3 of agriculture potential will remain untapped.

3) Industry
4) Drinking Water And Sanitation

Pakistan’s population is increasing by over 2% per year requiring availability of more clean drinking water. Cities, towns, Villages expanding requiring more water for sanitation purposes.
Implementation of clean drinking water schemes possible with availability of more water.

5) Environment

Better clean environment for humans. Reduction in barren land. Controlled rivers and canals.
More land area under cultivation, greenery and habitation to improve better water management and cleanliness. More forests and eco system preservation and flood control.

7. KALABAGH DAM:

Public feeling that were running high on the Kalabagh dam issue have mercifully calmed down. The president made a sensible move by announcing a change in the order of the dams to be built.

The dam site is located 210 Km downstream of Tarbela and 26 Km upstream of Jinnah Barrage on the Indus. When completed, the rock fill dam will rise to a height of 260 feet and will be 4375 feet long. It will create a reservoir with usable storage capacity of 6.1 maf. The entire project is estimated to cost $ 6.1 billion and will take 6 years to complete.

ROLE:• Replacing storage lost by sedimentation in existing reservoirs at Mangla, Chasma and Tarbela and proving additional storage of water to meet existing water storages during early Kharif period of April/June. (Particularly critical for cotton crop in Sindh).
• Providing effective regulations of Indus River to meet Kharif allocation of provinces under WAA1991.
• To control flood in the Indus to enable provisions of perennial tube well irrigation to the revering area in Sindh.
• Generation of Hydroelectric power at low cost.
• Reducing dependence on imported fuel, saving foreign exchange.
I. Reservations of Sindh:
1) No surplus water is available for storage.
2) There is the fear that there is not enough water in the Indus for these mega projects to be used optimally i.e. there would be no surplus water to fill Kalabagh reservoir.
3) The project would render Sindh into a desert.
4) Sindh’s water supply which is already at low level will be reduced further since the regulation of the flow of the river might enable the upper riparian to take away more of the water and thus starve the lower riparian of irrigation for its agriculture (Sindh is the lower riparian).
5) Sindh’s worries about possible environmental problems. Its coastal area, which has suffered as a result of SEA water moving unto the KOTRI, need to minimum 3.6MAF of water escapade per annum in the INDUS to offset the negative ecological impact on the river DELTA. Sindh fears that:
“Sea water intrusion in Indus estuary would increase. Mangrove forest, which is already threatened, would be further affected adversely. Fish production, drinking water supply below KOTRI would be adversely affected.”
CRITICISM:According to experts, these apprehensions are baseless and the real issue is that of politics.
• Dams don’t consume water. They store water during floods and make it available for crops demand bases for the dry period.
• The share of water would be strictly governed by WAA1991.
• Mangrove forests cover area of almost 0.32MA. In the forest spreading from Karachi in the west to the Rann of Kutch in east, 95% of forest population consists of a SALT –TOLERANT variety.
• Similarly, a recent study has shown that instead of reduction fish production has increased. Moreover, downstream to KOTRI barrage, ground water id saline or brackish not suitable for irrigation or drinking. After KBD there would be drinking water available.
II. Reservations of Balochistan:
1) The supply of water from Indus, through the Pat Feeder canal, may be curtailed.
III. Reservations of NWFP:
1) It will flood Noshera and lot of fertile areas will be waterlogged, besides displacing a large no of people.
2) It will displace 42000 people.
3) There would be water logging and salinity in Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi.
4) It is also feared that historic flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera would be aggravated in the event of recurrence of 1929 record flood.
CRITICISM:• Nowshera, Mardan and Swabi has altitude higher than that of KBD (915 feet above sea level). Thus KBD would not result in flooding or water logging /salinity. Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi are at 970-962-1000ft above MSL (Mean Sea Level)
• Total cultivable land submerged would be 27500 Acres (24500 in the Punjab and 3000Acrs in NWFP). Thus submerged irrigated land would be only 3000Acres (2900 Acres in Punjab and 100Acres in NWFP.
• As far as the displacement of people is concerned the people have in their minds the problems faced after the construction of Tarbela new model village should be constructed to resettle the effected families with facilities of water supply, electricity, roads, dispensaries, schools etc.
8. DIAMER BASHA DAM:The project is located on Indus River, about 315 Km upstream of Tarbela Dam, 165 Km downstream of Gilgit and 40 Km downstream of Chilas. The dam would have a maximum height of 270meters and impound a reservoir of about 7.4 maf, with live storage of more than 6.4 maf. Mean annual discharge of Indus River at the site is 50 maf. The dam will impound 15 % of the annual river flow. The dam project would cover an area of 110 Km and extend 100 Km upstream of the dam site up to Raikot Bridge on Karakoram highway.
The estimate cost is $ 6.5 billion. It will affect 30 villages and 2200 houses. It will also affect 22000 people. The total area under reservoir will be 25000 acre and it will generate 16500 Gwh/ year.
Benefits:
1) Availability of 6.5MAF annual surface water storage to supplement irrigation supplies during low flow periods.
2) Clean and cheap energy through 4500 MW generations.
3) Deduction of dependence on thermal power thus, saving foreign exchange.
4) Employment opportunity, particularly to the locals, during the construction and operations.
5) Creation of masses infrastructure leading to overall socioeconomic uplift of the area and standard of living of people.
6) Flood control.
9. CONCLUSION:

• The government has drawn up a 25-year plan (2005-2030) for increasing energy production in the country. That is needed to meet the demand for energy which is increasing by ten to twelve per cent annually, says Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. That is one of the major development plans.

• The energy development plan is accompanied by initial cost estimates which will be $37 billion to $40 billion that has to come in the form of foreign aid or foreign investment. And that is a very large sum. But the annual average expenditure works out to $1.5 billion. If Pakistan itself was to make the investment, the total cost might be less.

• Disclosing the details of the 25-year energy augmentation plan Shaukat Aziz says consumption of power in Pakistan will increase seven fold by 2030 and the energy needs will increase by eight fold.

• Malthus stated that in the race between increasing population and increasing production, population must eventually win. Those of us who decline to accept this pessimistic view recognize the difficulty of the practical problem of meeting the needs of an ever-expanding population.

• The present government needs to be appreciated that it has ended the dead lock wit inauguration of Diamer Basha Dam. It is hoped that Govt. would make an effort to remove the apprehensions the provinces and construct other dams too.

• There should be public consensus on national issue and to look into the matters with contempt as enemies are working against the prosperous future of Pakistan. We as a nation need to unite as one to defeat their nefarious aims.